Four-in-five Albertans say they're certain to cast a ballot in the province's upcoming referendum on separation, according to new polling from the Angus Reid Institute published August 14, 2026. The survey of 1,017 Alberta residents, conducted August 10-13, finds those wanting to remain in Canada outnumber separation supporters by nearly two-to-one as both sides ramp up donations and volunteers ahead of the fall vote.

The data reveals 61% of Albertans say the province should remain part of Canada, while 33% would vote to commence the legal process for a binding separation referendum on October 19. When asked a simplified hypothetical question—should Alberta leave Canada and become independent or stay—support for leaving drops to 30%, while staying rises to 65%. Vote certainty shows a seven-point gap between the camps: 88% of "leave" voters say they're certain to vote this fall, compared to 81% on the "stay" side. The perceived stakes differ even more sharply—85% of those planning to vote "leave" describe the referendum as "very important" to Alberta's future, versus 60% of "stay" voters. Demographically, men older than 34 are most likely to back the path to separation, while three-quarters of Albertans under 35 want the province to remain in Canada. Among 2023 United Conservative Party supporters, opinion splits more closely, while 92% of 2023 NDP voters oppose proceeding toward separation.

The institute's polling identifies two-in-five "leave" voters (41%) say the separation vote is more about "sending a message to Ottawa" rather than genuinely wanting Alberta to separate—a motivation cited by the remaining 59% of separation supporters. Support levels have remained statistically stable since May, when 30% said they'd vote to leave in a hypothetical referendum, with two-thirds consistently backing staying in Canada throughout data recorded in 2026. The report notes Premier Danielle Smith is walking a tight rope on separation, given her 2023 support base shows more openness to the referendum process than the provincial majority.

The gap between those willing to proceed with a future referendum (33%) and those who would actually vote to leave (30%) appears partially explained by split motivations among separation supporters, according to the institute's analysis. The "sending a message" contingent—representing roughly 41% of the leave camp—suggests some voters view the referendum as a negotiating tactic rather than a genuine independence bid. This dynamic may prove decisive given the higher vote certainty among leave supporters: their 88% certainty rate, combined with viewing the vote as more critical, could narrow the polling gap when actual ballots are cast. The 82% overall vote certainty rate indicates Albertans across both camps recognize October 19 as a consequential moment, even as the province remains decisively opposed to starting the separation process by a near two-to-one margin.